Saturday, April 16, 2011

"We never quite achieved the catharsis necessary to stoke a deep re-evaluation of our wants, needs and fears"

While it is preferable to read rather than see Mr. Burry's presentations, he makes some very compelling points at the end....

From 19:00 onwards the speech is most coherent and at times compelling.  I definitely have not agreed with many things Dr. Burry has said in the past. Also, what he says here I also do not want to believe, however, his observations have credence, and he makes the case that individuals and families should seek to take action for another fat tail event.  

Watch from 19:00 onwards:
Dr. Burry's Vanderbilt Speech

What do investing teams think about possible outcomes here?  Are they sensitive to this tail risk, or do they write it off as many did before 2008 (what to they think about junk bonds at all time highs)?

Some interesting quotes:

"We never quite achieved the catharsis necessary to stoke a deep re-evaluation of our wants, needs and fears; importantly the toxic twins: fiat currency and activist Fed, remain firmly entrenched, even more-so with the financial reforms last year. In fact, the Federal Reserve, having acquired new powers of regulation, has insisted specifically that nothing in the field of economics or finance was of any help in predicting the crisis...it guarantees that we will make the same mistake again and again"

"Arguments on blooming economic recovery must be considered alongside the fact that all this debt and all the money being printed is very much a real bill, a real tax on our future:  it is debtors' prison for our children, it has not yet come true today except for savers and those on a fixed income."

Advice for the Vanderbilt students:

"There is nothing wrong with breaking with the social norm to ensure good outcomes....It is not a time for a responsible individual to tolerate any level of blind faith toward any man or woman.  It is absolutely not a time to follow."