Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Has the Yen Finally Cracked?

At some point, the perception of the Japanese yen as a safe haven will be tested - and perhaps this test is starting now.  A move lower in the yen is implied in the chart below; it has been a long time coming.


With commodity prices at all time highs, interest rates worldwide on a higher path, and a seemingly paralyzed sitting government, Japan faces the unpleasant prospect of lower growth combined with higher debt financing costs should interest rates increase....  


As long as China booms, Japan will do well, however, a strong currency and high commodity import prices definitely hurts profits and growth.  Better to allocate to countries less reliant on imports....