Sunday, December 26, 2010

The Economics of Inflation

If anyone is interested in learning the details of the great post World War I German hyperinflaiton, they should read at this book.  It is the seminal text on the matter and covers the details of events leading up to the hyperinflation, its causes and of particular interest to me, the social effects - ie, who lost most from the inflaiton and who benefitted.....


It was written in the decade following the events described, and is  incredibly detailed, including a wide array of detailed economic and monetary statistics - inedeed it is more of a text book than a narrative that you would find these days - you must have a strong desire to understand the subject matter, but it is well worth it.


It is hard to believe that hyperinflation could occur in any advanced economy today, particularly with well-documented events of hyperinflation and its horrible results, such as those describedin this book --- however, it seems that the lessons of the German hyperinflaiton (and the high inflations in 1980s Latin America) are not widely understood at all (perhaps QE I & II may end up being examples of this lack of understanding, it remains to be seen).


So, who were the losers?  The "rentiers' or those small business owners, property owners, retirees who had monetary assets....and workers whose wages were not linked to inflaiton...


Who were the winners?  Some large industrialists who owned or had access to foreign assets, currencies, raw material production or importation, speculators (opportunists who had the foresight and flexibility to move monetary assets out of paper currency), farmers (who had mortgage debt which became worthless and who had the flexibility to use earnings from production for machinery, labor and other input purchases).


Take note -- equities did not maintain their value vs the inflation.  Of course, bond investors and those in cash lost it all......

Enjoy !