With the great December rally in most asset classes, yesterday is was time to take some chips off the table and reassess....
Also relevant is the recent Queensland, Australia flooding of an area the size of Texas -- this will have a great effect on economic output, particularly wheat & coal production and as such will negatively impact the AUD. Also, with the AUD at highs, things are particularly expensive there and the property market is due for a pullback - when, I do not know, but it looks like the U.S. did to me in 2005...if there is any one bet I would like to make this year it is now to short AUD, however, I will wait for now...
The AUD, CAD, Gold & Corn positions were all very profitable; all came off and a 1% positions in Soybeans was put on. I will look to add a small position in Wheat if all commodities do not sell off in the near term.
I am also looking at putting Gold back on and shorting Yen, but again, not yet...
Now flat equities approx. net 0%, gross 25%; equities mostly in defensive sectors for now (Oil stocks & Asian ETFs had a nice run, so lightened up). The prevailing move in equities is up, so I want to be long, but want to buy cheaper if possible....
Longs in:
Asian ETFs - 2.5%
Pharma - 5%
Telecom - 2.5%
Agriculture - 2.5%
Oil, Gas, Industrials - 2.5%
Tech - 5%
Forward PE's on the individual longs are still approximately 11x.
Pending Trades:
Long Gold
Short Yen
Long Wheat
Long Equities (Asian ETFs / Oil Stocks)
Short AUD
